17th August 2020 – The National Hurricane Centre has shifted its focus to disturbance 1 and 2 as Josephine and Kyle have dissipated. Disturbance 1 is expected to pass to the south of the British Virgin Islands through the Windward Islands based on current information however, disturbance 2 has time to develop and potentially make a west northwest track before reaching our area putting us in the cone of uncertainty. Persons should continue to monitor this disturbance closely.
Disturbance 1 is located along 54W, or about 1443 miles east south east of British Virgin Islands. It is moving to the west at 15 to 20 mph. On this track, the disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands early Tuesday, bringing showers and storms. Once in the Caribbean, environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development, especially over the western Caribbean. Forecasters expect it to reach the western Caribbean in the vicinity of the Yucatan by Saturday. Development chances over the next 7 days have increased to 50 percent.
Disturbance 2 is located along 27W, or about 2,831 miles east south east of British Virgin Islands. It is moving to the west near 15 to 20 mph. The disturbance is about 5 days away from reaching the Lesser Antilles. Thunderstorms have been increasing with this disturbance during the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more favorable for tropical development over the next several days as it continues to move west. Based on the latest trends and some computer model support we have increased development chances to 60 percent.
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Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.
