WOCA31
TAPA TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MONDAY OCT 16 2023 …
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 REGAINING ORGANIZATION AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AREA…
THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94, WHICH COULD BE NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEKEND.
GIVEN ITS CURRENT DISTANCE AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE YET, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH THE EVENTUAL FORECAST PATH AND STRENGTH OF AL94. HOWEVER, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM POSES LITTLE THREAT TO THE ISLANDS, AT THIS TIME. IT’S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS THREAT MAY INTENSIFY IN THE DAYS AHEAD. TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY, IT’S ADVISABLE TO HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN READY AND STAY VIGILANT IN MONITORING THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE CLOSELY.
AT 2 PM ECT OR 1800 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1658 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE THE SYSTEM WENT THROUGH A WEAKENING CYCLE OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, IT APPEARS TO BE REGAINING ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH SINCE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS STILL LIKELY TO FORM AROUND THIS WEEK.
BASED ON THE FORECAST MODELS, THE CENTRE OF WHAT COULD BE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE TAMMY COULD BE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND OR SATURDAY. NEVERTHELESS, IT’S STILL TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, AN ALERT IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WITH THE PRESENT TREND.
IT’S ESSENTIAL FOR RESIDENTS TO KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE ON THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. MOREOVER, IT’S HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT EVERYONE REMAINS READY AND PREPARED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. YOUR VIGILANCE AND PREPAREDNESS ARE KEY TO ENSURING SAFETY DURING THIS TIME.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN BY 3 PM TOMORROW, OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER DALE DESTIN
