El Niño is officially over and we are in neutral conditions while we wait for La Niña to develop in the coming months. Experts at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration indicate the shift will occur sometime July though September.
While El Nino certainly contributed to the record heat observed since 2023, there is some uncertainty whether a strong El Niño signals the onset of an equally strong La Niña. Some uncertainty is related to how quickly the shift from one cycle to the other takes place, but since this quick transition has only happened 10 times in the historical record, there is not enough data to draw any solid conclusions.
Read more about the forecast here: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-2024-update-la-nina-likely-late-summer
