WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
10:00 AM ECT WED, OCT 18, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
AL94 CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, THAT AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER (AL94) REMAINS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER DATE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT 8AM ECT OR 1200Z THE CENTRE OF AL94 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST OR ABOUT 836 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1011 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AL94 IS MOVING TOWARD WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MILES PER HOUR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT HAS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE OR HIGH OF BECOMING ONE.
ON ITS PROJECTED FORECAST PATH, AL94 COULD BE NEAR THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY AS A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO SAY WITH HIGH CERTAINTY THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM, THE WIND INTENSITY ON ARRIVAL AND RAINFALL TOTALS.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE ISLANDS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AROUND 2PM OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
FORECASTER
LORNE SALMON
