WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE LEE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:00 PM ECT WED, SEP 6, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
HURRICANE LEE FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY…
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS LIKELY TO REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE AREA OF CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BUT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
MOST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THAT THE CENTRE WILL LIKELY PASS A RELATIVELY SAFE DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS; HOWEVER, RESIDENTS ARE STILL ADVISED TO STAY VIGILANT AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS CYCLONE..
AT 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1035 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND 1122 MILES EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
LEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY. LEE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY FRIDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB (29.21 INCHES).
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, HURRICANE LEE COULD BE NEAR THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE ISLANDS WILL BE IMPACTED BY HAZARDOUS SEAS. OTHER IMPACTS WHICH INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONES PATH, ITS SIZE AND INTENSITY WHICH WOULD BECOME CLEARER IN TIME.
NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE LEE AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 5 AM.
FORECASTER
CECIL MATTHEW
