WHCA31 TAPA
HURRICANE LEE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:00 PM ECT WED, SEP 6, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…LEE STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE…
…LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY SATURDAY…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE AREA OF CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BUT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
MOST FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THAT THE CENTRE WILL LIKELY PASS A RELATIVELY SAFE DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS; HOWEVER, RESIDENTS ARE STILL ADVISED TO STAY VIGILANT AND MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS CYCLONE CLOSELY.
AT 5 PM, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT MILES 1033 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1227 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. LEE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND LEE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORECE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL STORM LEE COULD BE NEAR THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE ISLANDS WILL BE IMPACTED HAZADOUS SEAS. OTHER IMPACTS WHICH INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONES PATH, ITS SIZE AND INTENSITY WHICH WOULD BECOME CLEARER IN TIME.
NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL STORM LEE AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AFTER 11 PM.
FORECASTER
LETITIA HUMPHREYS
