WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:15 PM ECT WED, OCT 18, 2023
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…TAMMY STARTING TO SLOW DOWN…
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY…
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA, THE REST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED AT A LATER DATE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AT 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 627 SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND 852 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). A WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF TAMMY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND TAMMY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM) FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).
BASED UPON THE LATEST INFORMATION AND ANALYSES, TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND A BIT STRONGER COMPARED TO THE 5 PM BULLETIN.
ON ITS PROJECTED FORECAST PATH, TAMMY COULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING ITS EVENTUAL PATH AND STRENGTH AT THIS TIME, RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR IMPACTS TO INCLUDE STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS THAT COULD BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH, HEAVY RAINFALL AND ROUGH SEAS ON SATURDAY. THESE CONDITIONS COULD WORSEN IF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND MOVES EVEN CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED EARLY TOMORROW WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER ON THURSDAY.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL STORM TAMMY CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 6 AM THURSDAY OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
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FORECASTER
ORVIN PAIGE
